{"id":1342,"date":"2025-02-03T10:00:35","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T07:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/?p=1342"},"modified":"2025-08-18T23:02:28","modified_gmt":"2025-08-18T20:02:28","slug":"kuresel-riskler-2025-wef","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/2025\/02\/03\/kuresel-riskler-2025-wef\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcresel Riskler 2025 &#8211;  WEF"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu yaz\u0131, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu&#8217;nun &#8220;Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025&#8221; raporundan al\u0131nan bilgilere dayanarak haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dok\u00fcman, 2025 ve 2035 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fcresel riskleri, bunlar\u0131n temel nedenlerini ve olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 incelemektedir. Rapor, k\u0131sa vadeli (2 y\u0131l) ve uzun vadeli (10 y\u0131l) riskler aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klara ve risk alg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine odaklanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Temel Temalar ve \u00d6nemli Fikirler<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Artan Jeopolitik Gerilimler ve \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmalar:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">2025 i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olarak &#8220;Devlet Temelli Silahl\u0131 \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma&#8221; (proxy sava\u015flar\u0131, i\u00e7 sava\u015flar, darbeler, ter\u00f6rizm vb.) g\u00f6sterilmektedir. Bu risk, ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re 8. s\u0131radan 1. s\u0131raya y\u00fckselmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">Rusya&#8217;n\u0131n Ukrayna&#8217;y\u0131 i\u015fgali, Orta Do\u011fu ve Sudan&#8217;daki sava\u015flar gibi olaylar, bu riskin y\u00fckselmesinde \u00f6nemli rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;\u00c7ok tarafl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131&#8221; ile birlikte \u00fclkeler, ulusal g\u00fcvenlik konular\u0131n\u0131 kendi ba\u015flar\u0131na ele almaya y\u00f6nelmekte ve savunma harcamalar\u0131 artmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Artan askeri harcamalar, sa\u011fl\u0131k, e\u011fitim ve altyap\u0131 gibi alanlardaki uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 riske atabilir.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re 17 s\u0131ra y\u00fckselerek 11. s\u0131raya yerle\u015fen Su\u00e7 ve Yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 Ekonomik Faaliyet, ekonomik risk alg\u0131lar\u0131nda keskin bir art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><strong>Al\u0131nt\u0131:<\/strong> &#8220;\u015eu anki jeopolitik ortam, Rusya&#8217;n\u0131n Ukrayna&#8217;y\u0131 i\u015fgalinin ard\u0131ndan Orta Do\u011fu ve Sudan&#8217;da da sava\u015flar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, 2025&#8217;te maddi bir kriz olu\u015fturmas\u0131 beklenen k\u00fcresel bir riski de\u011ferlendirirken bu t\u00fcr olaylar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmamay\u0131 neredeyse imkans\u0131z hale getiriyor: Anket kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse d\u00f6rtte biri (%23) Devlet Temelli Silahl\u0131 \u00c7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 2025 i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olarak se\u00e7ti.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u00c7evresel Risklerin Ciddile\u015fmesi:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">\u00c7evresel risklerin, hem \u015fiddeti hem de s\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2006&#8217;dan beri s\u00fcrekli olarak k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti\u011fi belirtilmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 hava olaylar\u0131&#8221; (sel, s\u0131cak hava dalgalar\u0131 vb.), 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k risk listesinde \u00fcst s\u0131ralarda yer almaktad\u0131r ve gelecekte daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olmas\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Biyo\u00e7e\u015fitlilik kayb\u0131 ve ekosistem \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc&#8221;, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k risk listesinde 2. s\u0131rada yer almaktad\u0131r ve 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k listeye g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Kritik D\u00fcnya Sistemlerindeki De\u011fi\u015fim&#8221; ve &#8220;Do\u011fal Kaynak K\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131&#8221;, uzun vadeli riskler aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Kirlilik&#8221;, \u00f6zellikle Orta ve G\u00fcney Asya ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck orta gelirli \u00fclkelerde ciddi bir endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak belirtilmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">Raporda, &#8220;siyah karbon (is), PFAS (sonsuz kimyasallar), mikro ve nano plastikler, ila\u00e7lar ve azot kirlili\u011fi&#8221; gibi \u00e7e\u015fitli kirlilik t\u00fcrlerinin tehlikelerine dikkat \u00e7ekilmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><strong>Al\u0131nt\u0131:<\/strong> &#8220;\u00c7evresel risklerin etkileri, 2006 y\u0131l\u0131nda K\u00fcresel Riskler Raporu&#8217;nun yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131ndan bu yana yo\u011funluk ve s\u0131kl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmi\u015ftir. Dahas\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alarm vericidir; GRPS&#8217;deki 33 riskin tamam\u0131n\u0131n da iki y\u0131ll\u0131ktan 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k zaman dilimine kadar \u015fiddetinin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi beklenirken, \u00e7evresel riskler en \u00f6nemli k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmeyi g\u00f6stermektedir.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Teknolojik Geli\u015fmeler ve Riskler:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Yapay zeka teknolojilerinin olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131&#8221; ve &#8220;\u00f6nc\u00fc teknolojilerin olumsuz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131&#8221; uzun vadeli riskler aras\u0131nda yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">Yapay zeka ve biyoteknoloji alan\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerin hem olumlu hem de olumsuz potansiyelleri vurgulanmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle, AI&#8217;nin k\u00f6t\u00fc ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin, toksik madde \u00fcretimi) konusundaki endi\u015feler dile getirilmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">Biyoteknolojinin silahlanmada kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 ve siber sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131 gibi riskler de \u00f6nem kazanmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><strong>Al\u0131nt\u0131:<\/strong> &#8221; Laboratuvar ortam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen bir deneyde, daha \u00f6nce t\u0131bbi ila\u00e7 ke\u015ffinde kullan\u0131lan bir yapay zeka sistemi, toksisite molek\u00fcllerini bulmak ve birle\u015ftirmek \u00fczere e\u011fitildi. Sadece alt\u0131 saat i\u00e7inde, \u00f6rnek sinir ajan\u0131 kadar toksik en az 40.000 bile\u015fik olu\u015fturulmu\u015ftu.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Sosyal ve Ekonomik Riskler:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;E\u015fitsizlik&#8221; (servet, gelir) ve &#8220;toplumsal kutupla\u015fma&#8221; k\u0131sa vadeli riskler aras\u0131nda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;G\u00f6n\u00fcls\u00fcz g\u00f6\u00e7 veya yerinden edilme&#8221; gibi risklerin de artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Ya\u015flanan toplumlar&#8221; ve bununla ili\u015fkili sorunlar (bak\u0131m hizmetleri, emeklilik krizleri) uzun vadeli riskler olarak belirtilmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">&#8220;Su\u00e7 ve yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomik faaliyetlerin&#8221; hem k\u0131sa hem de uzun vadede \u00f6nemli bir risk fakt\u00f6r\u00fc oldu\u011fu vurgulanmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><strong>Al\u0131nt\u0131:<\/strong> &#8220;Toplumsal risk alg\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve iki y\u0131ll\u0131k risk tablosunda \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. E\u015fitsizlik (#7) ve Toplumsal kutupla\u015fma (#4) daha da y\u00fcksek bir s\u0131radad\u0131r.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u00c7ok Tarafl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n Zay\u0131flamas\u0131:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">Multilateral kurumlar\u0131n rol\u00fc ve \u00f6nemi sorgulanmakta ve bu kurumlar\u0131n fonlar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar olabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;\u0130nsani yard\u0131m b\u00fct\u00e7elerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f&#8221; ya\u015fan\u0131rken, &#8220;insani krizlerin derinle\u015febilece\u011fi&#8221; ve &#8220;silahl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n daha fazla insan\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctleyebilece\u011fi&#8221; endi\u015fesi dile getirilmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\"><strong>Al\u0131nt\u0131:<\/strong> &#8220;Multilateralizm, 1945&#8217;te BM&#8217;nin kurulu\u015fundan bu yana en zor d\u00f6nemini ya\u015famaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde, ulusal h\u00fck\u00fcmetler taraf\u0131ndan temel multilateral kurumlar\u0131n rolleri ve \u00f6ncelikleri hakk\u0131nda daha fazla soru sorulmas\u0131 muhtemeldir ve bu kurumlara y\u00f6nelik fonlarda k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar olabilir.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Yap\u0131sal G\u00fc\u00e7ler:<\/strong><\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">Raporda, &#8220;teknolojik, jeostratejik, iklimsel ve demografik&#8221; olmak \u00fczere d\u00f6rt yap\u0131sal g\u00fcc\u00fcn k\u00fcresel risklerin geli\u015fimini \u015fekillendirdi\u011fi belirtilmektedir.<\/li>\n<li class=\"ql-indent-1\">Bu yap\u0131sal g\u00fc\u00e7ler, risklerin h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131, yay\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 veya kapsam\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyebilir ve birbirini etkileyebilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Risklerin Birbiriyle Ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 ve Bile\u015fik Etkileri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Rapor, risklerin birbiriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve bile\u015fik etkiler yaratabildi\u011fini vurgulamaktad\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin, &#8220;silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, insani krizleri \u015fiddetlendirmekte ve zorunlu g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fc art\u0131rmaktad\u0131r&#8221;. &#8220;Biyolojik ve kimyasal silahlar ile siber casuslu\u011fun birlikte kullan\u0131lmas\u0131&#8221; durumunda etkilerin \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olabilece\u011fi belirtilmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Risk Y\u00f6netimi Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Rapor, risklerle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli yakla\u015f\u0131mlar \u00f6nermektedir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Finansal ara\u00e7lar<\/li>\n<li>Ulusal ve yerel d\u00fczenlemeler<\/li>\n<li>Miniateral antla\u015fmalar ve anla\u015fmalar<\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel antla\u015fmalar ve anla\u015fmalar<\/li>\n<li>Kalk\u0131nma yard\u0131m\u0131<\/li>\n<li>Kurumsal stratejiler<\/li>\n<li>Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve geli\u015ftirme<\/li>\n<li>Kamuoyu fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve e\u011fitimi<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7ok payda\u015fl\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131m<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Sonu\u00e7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu yaz\u0131, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu&#8217;nun &#8220;Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025&#8221; raporundan elde edilen \u00f6nemli bulgular\u0131 \u00f6zetlemektedir. Rapor, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel risklerin artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bu risklerle ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmak i\u00e7in daha proaktif ve koordineli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimsenmesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulamaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle, \u00e7evresel risklerin ciddiyetinin artmas\u0131 ve jeopolitik gerilimlerin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131, k\u00fcresel i\u015f birli\u011finin \u00f6nemini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ek Notlar:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Rapor, risk alg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015f gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fini de g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Raporun ekinde, risklerin tan\u0131mlar\u0131 ve kullan\u0131lan metodoloji hakk\u0131nda detayl\u0131 bilgiler bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Rapor, T\u00fcrkiye dahil bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk alg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 da sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/publications\/global-risks-report-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rapor linki<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu yaz\u0131, D\u00fcnya Ekonomik Forumu&#8217;nun &#8220;Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025&#8221; raporundan al\u0131nan bilgilere dayanarak haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dok\u00fcman, 2025 ve 2035 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen k\u00fcresel riskleri, bunlar\u0131n temel nedenlerini ve olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 incelemektedir. Rapor, k\u0131sa vadeli (2 y\u0131l) ve uzun vadeli (10 y\u0131l) riskler aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klara ve risk alg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n zaman i\u00e7inde nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fine odaklanmaktad\u0131r. Temel Temalar ve [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"iawp_total_views":4,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1342","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-raporlar-reports"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1342"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1343,"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342\/revisions\/1343"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1342"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1342"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tolgavural.xyz\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1342"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}